The political landscape in Syria has undergone a seismic shift following the resignation and fled of Ex-President Bashar al-Assad for the past five decades. The emergent figure leading the conversation is Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known as Julani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
Abu Muhammad Al-Julani, known as Julani, has another name as Ahmed Hussein Al-Shara. He was born in Damascus to a politically active Syrian family. Initially associated with extremist factions, Julani has made concerted efforts to rebrand both himself and HTS as a more moderate force advocating for Syria’s reconstruction. His strategic experience leading HTS through volatile conflicts has shaped his vision for the country, which includes establishing a governance system based on popular councils and ensuring the safety of minority groups, including Christians.
Speaking shortly after HTS’s successful capture of Aleppo and other strategic territories, Julani declared the Assad regime “dead,” a sentiment reflecting his broader aspirations shaped by his upbringing in a politically active Syrian family. He emphasized the need for a governance system based on popular councils and assured that minority groups, including Christians, would be safe under his leadership. This message marks a notable departure from HTS’s earlier associations with hardline ideologies.
The downfall of Assad’s government was accelerated by significant territorial losses. In late November, HTS led a major offensive, capturing Aleppo—Syria’s second-largest city—along with its airport and surrounding towns. This victory came after years of regime gains backed by Russian and Iranian support. Julani attributed the regime’s collapse to internal weaknesses exacerbated by sustained pressure from opposition forces, drawing upon his years of strategic experience leading HTS through volatile conflicts.
Julani’s vision for Syria includes the withdrawal of all foreign forces, signaling a rejection of both Western and Eastern external interventions. “Once this regime falls, there will be no need for foreign powers to stay,” he stated in an interview. His rhetoric seeks to unify Syrians under a nationalist framework while distancing HTS from its extremist past. He has also pledged accountability for abuses committed under HTS’s jurisdiction, including allegations of mistreatment in its prisons.
Domestically, the power vacuum left by Assad has reignited old rivalries among Syrian opposition groups. While HTS has emerged as a dominant military force, other factions, including the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and remnants of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), contest its political authority. These groups argue for a more inclusive approach to rebuilding Syria, contrasting with HTS’s centralized model.
Western powers have expressed cautious optimism about Assad’s departure but remain wary of HTS’s ascendancy. Neighboring countries like Turkey and Iran are recalibrating their strategies to account for the new dynamics. Turkey, which has historically supported Syrian opposition forces, could leverage its influence to mediate among rival factions, while Iran faces a strategic setback with the loss of its ally.
Russia, a key backer of the Assad regime, has so far refrained from direct engagement with HTS but has called for a negotiated settlement to stabilize Syria. Moscow’s focus may now shift to safeguarding its military assets and influence in the region. Meanwhile, Gulf states, including Qatar and Saudi Arabia, could play a pivotal role in financing reconstruction efforts, provided they align with their strategic interests.
For the Syrian people, the path forward remains uncertain, but the end of Assad’s rule marks a their long struggle for a peaceful and prosperous future.
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